The Speculation Trap
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. ––Proverbs 18:2
spec·u·late
a : to review something idly or casually and often inconclusively
b : to assume a business risk in hope of gain
I grew up near Gold Country in northern California. You know, Sutter’s Mill, the California Gold Rush of 1849, etc. (Not a surprise then, that I’m a big San Francisco 49ers fan.) Here’s the thing about the Gold Rush that hit California 175 years ago: of the tens of thousands of gold speculators and prospectors who came west in search of wealth, very few actually struck it rich.
Many of the men who came west had never mined gold before, and were quick to part with the little money they brought with them. They were speculating that the gold was just running down the hillsides and was filling the creeks—which was untrue. They speculated that the little money they had—often all spent before they even put pan to water—would be parlayed into big gains.
Sadly, many went broke and returned home worse off than before. In fact, it was the merchants who made the most money. Take a guy named Levi Strauss (sound familiar?). He came west to sell dry goods to miners, and saw the need for a sturdy, well-built work pant. He partnered with a Reno, Nevada tailor named Jacob Davis, and they created heavy cotton work pants hammered with rivets in the pocket corners to make them more durable. The company, “Levi Strauss & Co.” couldn’t sell enough of their “waist high overalls” to the miners, lumberjacks and farmers.
Speculation is a particularly dangerous enterprise when it comes to human relationships. What we see a lot of these days—due in part to a lot of hooey floated on social media—is a profusion of misinformation, speculation, and assumption. When we form opinions of others based on limited information or flimsy “facts,” we run the risk of dishonoring that person at best, and conducting character assassination at worst.
As God’s man, we look for facts and we corroborate. When we hear the rumor about a friend having an affair or abusing drugs, we don’t speculate. We go to the source, confront in love, and stick with the facts. When we are treated rudely at work, we give the benefit of the doubt, remain calm, and ask questions.
Don’t act like a gold-crazed prospector, making assumptions and chasing false leads. There was a saying that came out of the Gold Rush that’s relevant for us: “During a gold rush, sell shovels.” In our case, we need to keep a cool head, remain sober-minded, and use constructive tools to dig for the truth. That’s the equivalent of employing a shovel while others are chasing rumors.
Father, help me give the benefit of the doubt when I hear a rumor, and let me be a part of the solution rather than the problem when it comes to speculation, assumptions, and gossip.
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https://history.howstuffworks.com/american-history/gold-rush.htm